The Movie Trailer Theorem

This past weekend my wife and I saw the Film Birds of Prey (And The Fantabulous Emancipation Of One Harley Quinn) - the Margot Robbie vehicle about the scorned lover of the Clown Prince of Crime, and more generally about becoming your own person. It was, and I mean this in the best possible way, a dumb popcorn flick. I enjoyed it. My wife enjoyed it. And I don’t know if either of us will ever really think about the movie again. It was completely as advertised - the trailer makes the movie out to be a funny romp with DC easter eggs, intense violence, frenetic energy and a fair amount of girl power. That’s exactly what kind of movie it was - so we went into the showing very well prepared - and we weren’t disappointed.

But what if that’s not how the fine folks at Warner Bro’s had advertised that feature? What if they had led us to believe it would be all about batman, or the Joker (they already made that movie last year), or some other DC Comics paragon? What if they led us to believe it was super dark and serious? Or a film about only about Huntress (she was not heavily featured)? What if they told us it was going to be something totally different than what it was? If any of that had been true, we probably would have hated it, or, at least, liked it less than we actually did. That’s not to say this film didn’t surprise us - there were plenty of points in the movie where I was shocked and felt awe. But we went into it knowing what we were going to get out of it. You don’t want to buy chocolate chip ice cream, only to realize that it is rocky-road flavored. Even if that rocky road is super dope, that’s not what you wanted.

But why is that? Shouldn’t we just enjoy something whether it is good or not? Of course not, nobody thinks like that. Enter: the Movie Trailer Theorem. The idea is simple - when something is not delivered as advertised, regardless of quality, it is not as well received as it could have been. If you see a trailer and what comes across isn’t what you expected, then your grade for that movie is going to go down a few notches. This isn’t an original idea, not only have I heard this exact theory for movies at some point (I don’t remember from whom), but I am sure it has a super intricate title associated with it, named for some greek allegory or academic elite.

This theorem isn’t just for movies. You already heard a version of it about ice cream. There are dozens of other easy examples. But where I am most reminded of the Movie Trailer Theorem is during an entrepreneur’s pitch. When I hear a company sell itself to me as one thing, but then, upon further review, it turns out to be a totally different thing, that’s when I see the Theorem in full force. Too many times have I seen entrepreneurs tell the story about how their product is working to do one thing, but in reality it is doing something else. They want to let everyone know the problem they are going to solve in five years, but forget about the problem they are solving today.

Here’s the problem with that: all businesses start small. Investors want to hear about big problems and big issues to be solved, but they also want to hear about how you are going to position your company to solve those big problems in the first place. You need to get a head of steam before you can change the world. So start by changing one consumer, one company, or one product feature. The world is changed slowly over time, and then, suddenly, all at once.

As an investor, I want to fund companies that radically change the world for the better - it’s part of the reason I got into this business, but I am also realistic about the possibility of that happening over night. So there’s no need to try and convince me you are doing one thing when you really are doing something else. Tell me about the problem you are solving today and I can help you in the few ways I know how. Tell me about the problem you want to solve in 2025, and I can’t help because I am not even looking in the right direction.

I personally try and follow this advice in my own life. Unfortunately, sometimes I fall victim to a culture of “faking it until you make it”. Instead of asking questions and learning as much as a I can in a moment, I can sometimes act like I know what I am talking about to try and impress people. I don’t think I do this a ton, but I think it sets me up to fail and can be a dangerous expectations cocktail. When I put myself in a position to be open and honest, I am going to be more receptive to learning lessons and growing.

You could even make the case that this article is a good example of this Theorem in action - you probably thought, based on the thumbnail and title, that I was going to ramble on again about the movies. You probably didn’t think this was going to be all about pitching your startup and are now mad that you got this far and feel tricked. Sorry about that! I am not saying avoiding some pitfalls associated with the Movie Trailer Theorem is an easy task, but I do think it sets you up for long-term success.